| HOW JOEY G HANDICAPS &
PICKS NFL WINNERS The
key columns to watch are the Play/Rank columns. The lower the
rank, the better the play. As you can see in the sample
NFL card above, the Falcons would be a top sides play as Joey G
sees the 8 point spread coverable and the best play of the
sample NFL week above. As for over/under (totals), the
Cards vs. Chargers would be the top play at UNDER 47.5.
Remember that the sample above is only an example and does not
represent any real NFL games this season.
Important note: Lines change and so do our
plays, so check back often. When it is is early in the
week and perhaps too soon to make the final predictions on many
games, it is critical that you sign in and check for updates in
lines and/or plays. Joey G newcomers should know that we
typically do not recommend plays ranked less than 5. Some
members consistently play our top 3 plays of the week, while
others focus only on the top-ranked plays each week (the pick of
the week). The choice is yours, but the higher the rank
number, the worse the forecast from our Geneva Forecasting
System.
No Plays: When you see a "No Play" for any game,
this means .... NO PLAY! Joey G recommends avoiding this
pick entirely because the differential between our final score,
and what Vegas sees as the final score and spread are within
very small fractions of one another, making the pick too close
to call.
How we rank: Our ranks are just the opposite of
our no plays. The greater the differential between our
determination of what the spread should be and Vegas' call of
the game, the better the rank. We run a complete series of stats
and data through our forecasting engine every week. Let's use
the picks above. If, for example, our system says the underdog
Dolphins will beat the Broncos by 2 points, and the spread is
Denver -2, the differential between our calculation and Vegas is
4 points - which is huge in the world of NFL forecasting. As a
result, if this 4 point is our largest degree of difference in
all of our plays, then this would put Miami in the #1 position.
Again using the chart above, we may have the Chiefs forecasted
as a 1.5 point favorite, so while Vegas gives us a 3.5 point
margin, our system forecasts a two point differential in KC's
favor making them the a top play as well that would be broken
down to decimal places against the Giants game to determine the
better play. The numbers we used in this example and the point
differentials are only examples. Our top picks are typically
when the point spread is off by 2 to 4 points, Our other picks
are when the point spread is off by 1 to 2 points, in descending
order. When the spread is off by a point or less, we generally
will mark that as a "NO PLAY". We may downgrade a pick from a
Top Play if there is a question as to whether a key player who
is injured will perform.
OFF games: OFF simply means "off the board". We
are waiting on lines. Vegas is waiting on the Pats play
simply because the Tom Brady situation is up in the air, which
can dramatically tilt the scales in either direction depending
on his health. As of 11:00am EST on September 3rd, this
game is off the board. We will post the line when we
receive it, and it could possibly change our plays and ranks.
WAIT before you play: Weather, injuries and many
other parameters factor into our final plays. We always
recommend waiting as long as you can to make your plays for the
week. For example: Let's imagine the sample picks
above were from the 1970's and 80's. Joey G likes the
Giants (above) getting 6 points from the Raiders. It's a
negligible play because it is currently ranked #6.
However, if Ken Stabler breaks his arm on Saturday, you can bet
the line will change, the pick will change, and most likely our
rank will change, because after all, who's gonna throw to Dave
Casper and Freddie Biletnikoff?!?!? So it's best to take a
sideline approach until as late as possible because anything can
change!
Don't blame 'us', blame Joey!!!
Finally our disclaimer. We may personally hate some of
the plays we make, while others we love. Why?
Because we don't pick em. Joey does. "Joey" Geneva
is the fictional character name given to the NFL Forecasting
Software derived from the Geneva Forecasting System. We
post what we're told. Sometimes Joey is right, and other
times he's not. But more times than not, Joey G has picked
em better than we ever could over the years, so what Joey says
is what we post! Always remember the rankings. If you
insist on playing a game that is low-ranked (which means you're
better off not playing the game), then play at your own risk!
GOOD LUCK AND ENJOY THE
SEASON!
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